The crisis of socio‑political forecasting in the context of the digital rupture: the infrastructural‑algorithmic horizon of expectations

Abstract

The aim of the study is to demonstrate that the limitations of major prognostic models of the late 20th and early 21st centuries are due not only to the errors of individual authors but also to changes in the very political reality. The article examines the crisis of socio‑political forecasting amid digital transformation and analyses Henry Kissinger’s model of world order, Zbigniew Brzezinski’s geostrategic construct, and Francis Fukuyama’s thesis of the “end of history”. The digital rupture is treated as a change in the conditions of socio‑political anticipation. The state, territory, ideology, and the citizen remain important traditional coordinates of forecasting, yet the political future is increasingly mediated by platform communication, large datasets, and algorithmic regimes of visibility. The scientific novelty of the study lies in clarifying the concept of the infrastructural‑algorithmic horizon of expectations. Four levels of the forecasting crisis are identified: the temporal, the subject, the public‑communicative, and the sovereign.

Research materials

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About this article

Publication history

• Received: May 6, 2026.
• Published: June 24, 2026.

Keywords

• социально-политическое прогнозирование
• цифровой слом
• инфраструктурно-алгоритмический горизонт ожиданий
• политическая субъектность
• цифровой суверенитет
• socio‑political forecasting
• digital rupture
• infrastructural‑algorithmic horizon of expectations
• political subjectivity
• digital sovereignty

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